The Error Of Attributing Correlation To Causation

If A and B are statistically correlated, we can say that A and B typically go together, but that doesn’t mean that we can say automatically that A causes B or that B causes A. It could be that B is a causal factor for A, or that A is a causal factor for B, or that both A and B are caused by C, some other factor.

Or, as the Taoists would say, it could be that A and B are mutually arising phenomena.

For example, it may be a statistical correlation that most old people are out of shape, or that most young people don’t invest. But it would be inaccurate to say that a particular person is out of shape because they are old, or a particular other person doesn’t invest because they are young, because there are counterexamples of both. Some old people are in great shape, and some young people do invest.

This is an important distinction to make, because attributing correlation to causation in individual cases neglects the element of choice and self determination. It is the gateway to making excuses and settling.